... An upper low will slowly drift east across Virginia and North Carolina through Monday morning, maintaining breezy north winds and areas of cloud cover, along with small precipitation chances for the mountains and northwest Piedmont of North Carolina. Expect temperatures to slowly warm through the middle of the week, ahead of a dry cold front which will arrive by Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1116 AM: The forecast appears to be in decent shape late this morning. Starting to see the low clouds make a run down from the north as expected as the upper low rotates down toward the Tidewater region. Radar was quiet across the western Carolinas, but some light rain was noted along the Blue Ridge in VA, and that appears to be on track to reach the NW Piedmont later in the afternoon. Extensive cloudiness and some light precip should continue through the afternoon near the TN border. Temps were adjusted for trends.
Otherwise...the low will gradually shift east today carrying vort lobes with it. Moist CAA will amplify in its wake, allowing winds to become mildly gusty by late afternoon and enhancing cloud cover, which should last into tonight before beginning to dissipate. PoPs however still look unwarranted for the southern NC Piedmont zones as well as most of our SC/GA zones, the resultant lift being too shallow. On account of the clouds along the TN border and this afternoon in the NC Piedmont, have favored max temps similar to yesterday's readings. The remainder of the CWA should see temps a bit warmer, especially in the Lakelands. Mins tonight will be a few below normal.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday: An upper low drifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday, and a series of increasingly weak vort lobes rotate around it, allowing very limited forcing across the northern tier of the CWA. Profiles still look quite dry by this point so no PoPs are warranted Monday, with the only "impact" from this departing low amounting to perhaps some scattered high clouds through Monday afternoon. Thereafter, conditions should be clear and dry through Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be a category or two below normal Monday and Monday night, before climbing to within a category of normal on Tuesday as thicknesses build in the wake of the receding upper low.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday: Not much wholesale change to the extended forecast. Upper pattern becomes more progressive on Wednesday as weak ridging builds into the eastern CONUS. High pressure centered across the Upper Ohio Valley will reinforce already-dry profiles and inhibit any activity. High temperatures will climb each afternoon through Friday, allowing them to reach near-normal values across the area on Thursday, and surge to even a category above-normal on Friday.
Thursday evening, a robust cold front will sag across the Tennessee Valley, likely entering the forecast area by daybreak Friday, and creeping across it through the afternoon and evening hours. Despite a slight uptick in low-level moisture ahead of this front and fairly stout upper-level forcing associated with it, deterministic guidance still depicts a completely dry FROPA. Successive GEFS runs as well as the latest 00z GEPS have backed off on the more amplified potential solution that some members depicted last night, so confidence has improved on a completely-dry forecast through the end of the period.