Banner Elk

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Banner Elk, NC

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Highway 184
Lees McRae College
Echota Hwy 105

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Temperatures will be above normal through the work week as another area of high pressure spreads over the region and lingers for a few days. A moist cold front will move through the forecast area from the west on Thursday, bringing increased chances for rain through Friday. Expect cooler weather for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM: Winds diminish quickly by evening with calm to light and variable wind as high pressure and an upper ridge axis move in. Cirrus will begin to stream in and slowly thicken through the night, putting somewhat of a damper on otherwise good radiational conditions. Lows should be near normal.

A short wave moving by to our north will dampen the ridge axis somewhat, but doesn't cause falling heights over our area. Winds become S to SW, so expect highs to be around 10 degrees above normal once again, even with continued cirrus overhead.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 PM EST Monday: The short-term forecast picks up at 00z on Wednesday with relatively flat upper ridging centered to our south and southern stream upper trofing trying to close off an h5 low over the far SW CONUS. Over the next couple of days, the trof/closed low is expected to open back up and lift up and over the ridge and towards the Great Lakes, while the backside of the trof amplifies significantly over the Central/Southern Rockies. At the sfc, broad high pressure will spread back over the eastern CONUS and linger into Wed. On Wed, the high will gradually move offshore as a low pressure system develops over the ArkLaTex area and lifts NNE. The low will push a moist cold front thru our area on Thursday with the front expected to nearly stall out just to our east and south as the period ends late Thursday. Overall, the sensible fcst has changed little with Wed remaining dry, and precip chances ramping up from the west by early Thursday. Any convective/ hydro threats still appear minimal at this time. Temperatures will remain well-above normal thru the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Monday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on Friday with very broad upper trofing amplifying significantly over the Southern and Central Plains while upper ridging gradually shifts off the Atlantic Coast. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof will translate eastward and push the upper ridge further offshore. Most of the long-range guidance still has the trof axis moving over our area on Saturday, with upper ridging building back over the Southeast on Sunday.

At the sfc, a moist cold front will move thru our CWA on Thursday and then stall out over the coast by early Friday. At the same time, another sfc low will develop to our W or SW and lift a warm front over the Carolinas. It remains unclear how well-defined this front will be and exactly where the low will deepen and the track it will take as it lifts NE. Most of the extended guidance currently has the center of the low remaining just to our NW as it lifts NE Fri and early Sat with the deeper moisture lingering over more of our fcst area for a longer period of time on Fri. Nonetheless, most of the guidance still depicts drying high pressure spreading back over the region behind the low on Sat with dry high pressure dominating the region for the rest of the period. As for the sensible fcst, precip chances still peak on Thurs with the fropa, but I did increase PoPs for Fri especially across our SE zones. Fcst QPF has also increased on Fri and could pose a potential hydro threat as the day wears on, especially over our SE zones. Convective potential thru the period still appears minimal at best. Temperatures start out well-above normal on Fri and cool to near-normal, if not a few degrees below, by Sat. They warm again by early next week.

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